The U.S. and Russia are nearing agreement to coordinate strikes against Islamic extremists in Syria and impose a cease-fire that would halt President Bashar al-Assad’s attacks on the moderate opposition and civilians in his war-shattered country.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in Hangzhou, China for a meeting of the G-20, could announce a deal as early as Sunday, said a senior State Department official who asked not to be identified because the negotiations are private. The official said the two sides are close but several issues need to be solved.
The talks mark a renewed effort to halt the fighting and create space for negotiations on a political transition in Syria, after a February cease-fire collapsed and the country plunged further into chaos. Backed by Russian warplanes, Assad’s forces have waged an air and ground campaign that has killed hundreds of thousands of people, sparked a humanitarian crisis and forced millions of Syrians to seek refuge in Europe.
"We’re not there yet,” President Barack Obama said Sunday at a briefing in Hangzhou. “Understandably, given the previous failures of cessations of hostilities to hold, we approach it with some skepticism.”
In an interview with Bloomberg News on Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said the two sides are “gradually, gradually heading in the right direction” toward a deal.
Violent Crackdown
The civil war began with Assad’s crackdown on protesters demanding greater freedom during the Arab Spring of 2011. It has since evolved into a complex proxy war, with Assad getting support from Russia and Iran, and the U.S., Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf states backing those who seek to oust him.
Capitalizing on the chaos, Islamic State now controls large swathes of the country, while an al-Qaeda linked group formerly known as the Nusra Front has emerged, sometimes mingling with or fighting side-by-side with more moderate rebels who could potentially feature in a political transition. Complicating matters further, Kurdish groups have carved out control in north Syria, drawing in Turkish troops who crossed the border ostensibly to fight Islamic State but also to counter their spread.
Nusra Front
Under the deal being worked on by the U.S. and Russia, the two sides would share intelligence to carry out strikes against the Nusra Front, now known as Jabhat Fatah Al-Sham. Syria’s air force would be grounded in those and other areas, in an effort to halt the humanitarian crisis, stop bombing of the moderate opposition, and bring those sides back to the table for talks on a political settlement.
A key point of contention between the U.S. and Russia in the past has been identifying which areas are controlled by Nusra and which by the moderate opposition. The U.S. has accused Russia and Syria of deliberately targeting opposition groups under the guise of fighting terrorists.
Another question is one of consequences: what happens if the cease-fire fails? While U.S. special forces are operating on the ground, Obama has resisted threatening stepped-up U.S. military intervention for fear of getting pulled into another quagmire. The focus may shift back to demanding that Assad leave power, but Russia has resisted pressuring him to step down.
The talks in Hangzhou marked progress from a week ago, when Kerry and Lavrov met in Geneva. They failed to get a deal after more than nine hours of talks. Speaking at the briefing Sunday, Obama said the two have been working “around the clock” to reach agreement.
